Comments on “Post-apocalyptic life in American health care”

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Marshall 2017-12-08

From Eliezer’s new book:

“For our central example, we’ll be using the United States medical system, which is, so far as I know, the most broken system that still works ever recorded in human history. If you were reading about something in 19th-century France which was as broken as US healthcare, you wouldn’t expect to find that it went on working when overloaded with a sufficiently vast amount of money. You would expect it to just not work at all.”

Porting between ontologies is

Romeo Stevens 2017-12-09

Porting between ontologies is the full time profession of the atomized world.

I can empathize

Ian 2017-12-09

Sounds similar, but even worse, than my grandmother’s situation about 10 years ago. Blessedly, she did not have to deal with cancer on top of dementia. But she was transferred to an SNF without any notification to family members, or management of her residence! It is both fascinating and depressing that a new class of professionals has arisen, simply to be one’s “agent” within the system.

I'm sorry to hear

James 2017-12-10

My family recently went through a similar sort of situation. It’s really tough and I’m sorry to hear that you have to deal with this. Best wishes to your mother, you, and the rest of your family.

Medical systems

Caleb 2017-12-11

I’m sorry to hear of your mother’s situation and your difficulties. I wish you both well. While I realize the post was epistemological and ontological commentary rather than political, and knowing that in the US healthcare is a political football, I say the following in the hope that it can be seen as something other than a political comment. There is a context to these systems that you describe. There are assumptions embedded in both the description and the speculation. Some of the assumptions are ‘political’ in nature. Maybe I agree with them, maybe not. But let me make the following empirical point - we know that despite spending massively more both in absolute terms and on a per capita basis, the US healthcare outcomes rank well down the pack, so why use the US as the paradigm of what is possible or likely for the future? That’s a narrow perspective at best, and it’s the kind of narrowness that becomes self-fulfilling. Anyhoo, I used to live in Japan. No lack of medical technology or capabilities there. Significantly better outcomes. Much less work expected of patients, and much less stressful to deal with than the US system. And the really big difference is that the Japanese don’t think of their medical system as a “trillion dollar free market” or whatever. They think of it as a social good and design structures, processes and incentives accordingly. You see where I’m headed, obviously; the reason that a return to primitive modes of engagement is a subject of this post might have something to do with limitations in the set of assumptions embedded within both the system and the way the writer thinks.

A more conservative estimate

Adrian Wilkins 2017-12-12

A more conservative estimate of the costs of admin is around 27% ; this is the percentage of staff employed in the American healthcare system solely for billing administration [1].

The UK NHS by comparison is simpler - noted for it’s efficiency yet still primitive in terms of technology (fax!), plenty of room to improve - and manages to provide universal healthcare to the UK for less than half the cost per head of the US. You actually pay around 30% more per head in taxes spent on healthcare than we do. The fact that the majority of you get no healthcare at all for that should be causing riots all up and down every state.



James X. Kennedy, MS, LMSW 2017-12-12

Your so-apt comment that healthcare offices are like a pre-modern town had me and kept me. I am still in health care administration (nonprofit, upstate NY) and was previously (in the 1980s) and SNF administrator. Thank you and I am sharing this post widely.

Jim, Geneva NY

Here's your consulting business

R C 2017-12-12

“Maybe an ethnomethodological understanding of how health care organizations operate in practice could make the systems work incrementally better.”

Very hard work, to be sure, but deeply insightful.

System is broken forever and we keep breaking it more

Deepa Shiva 2017-12-14

I had been advocating for Integrated Health Care Platform - even tried building one in India, a country with less regulations and more private hospitals. I have worked in United States with Kaiser Pharmacy division and Blue Shield of California. Lot of people have right intentions to fix the system, but no where to begin. With the on-going changes in the political system makes it more difficult.

With the electronic medical records, EPIC ( is almost the monopoly and between their systems they can exchange records (Stanford and Kaiser did this for me), but when it came to Sutter Health they couldn’t, so all my records had to be faxed from Stanford to Sutter (this is because of change of my Insurance). Beginning with two major players as like you proposed Insurance and Hospitals, we do have systems (for ex:, but not exposed to patients. The biggest challenge apart from fragmentation of the data and information, I notice is lack of transparency to patients.

The UCLA health network has

Anonymous 2017-12-15

The UCLA health network has bought up so many private practices in and around LA that it carries at least some of the benefits of an integrated system. However, it also seems to cause a 300% price increase. It’s all somewhat reminiscent of the Mythical Man Month, but at least the doctors all have access to the same body of records …

I know MMM is an old book with antiquated prescriptions, but the problems of communication overhead remain very prescient. It seems to me that once systems scale beyond practical boundaries of communicating they decay into a chaotic background noise that seems to naturally invoke tribalist stylings

Health Care Reform: Dynamics Without Change

Mark Allen Kleiman 2018-01-08

Sound familiar? It was written in 1972. The core of the problem is trust and incentives. When you contact Fedex to ship that envelope to an island in Lapland, you KNOW where you want it to go and you know what you want to send. FedEx would not look so great if you had to show up at Fedex and the worker there got to recommend (or demand) where the envelope would go and what was in it.

We can’t know as much as the doctors and nurses. So we have to trust them. You could trust the counter worker at FedEx. But would you still trust that worker if her income depended on where she told you to send your package? (Fee for service). Nor could you trust them if she got a bonus for only sending your package across the street? (Managed care). And if the envelope or packing supply companies could pay her on the side, it would get even crazier. (Drug companies and medical device companies.)

The instant these financial incentives spring up you get (if you’re lucky) the 1,600 pages of regulations necessary to keep them in check.


tooearly 2018-01-09

You wrote:”Back-of-envelope calculations say a working health care system would deliver dramatically better quality at 10-20% of the current cost.”
Surely you don’t mean we really could save 80-90% of current cots?

80-90% off!

David Chapman 2018-01-09

Yes, that’s my best guess. I do the analysis by considering a particular medical service, finding out roughly how much a person providing it gets paid per year, and dividing by how long it takes to do to get the direct labor cost; finding out the cost of the equipment used and amortizing it; and adding in an estimate of the overhead (cost of the building and a reasonable level of administrative work). I’m reasonably skilled at this sort of analysis as a consequence of having run small businesses.

Estimates may vary, but everyone seems to agree that heath care is way more expensive than what you’d expect based on this sort of analysis. No one seems to know why; or, put a different way, where the money all goes. Everyone who has studied the problem agrees that it’s highly mysterious. It’s clear that administrative costs are needlessly much higher in health care than elsewhere, but that’s probably not the only source of the discrepancy.

A healthcare provider's perspective

Foster Ryan LAc 2018-01-24

Welcome to my life. Everything about the system is insane. The payment system incentivizes questionable behavior- but if you don’t do these things you will go bankrupt. The insurance companies do anything to reduce payments which then means providers have to become ‘creative’ as a counter measure to the inevitable dramatic payment reductions. Organizations have appeared between providers and the insurance companies to help the insurance companies save money and they cause the provider to be paid 1/2 of the money they need to be paid to survive, and that organization no doubt pockets a ton of money. The amount of record keeping required is exhausting, so it’s not just the administrators that spend time on paperwork- a huge amount of time is spent by the practitioners themselves on paperwork. Small offices are paid less than large organizations for the same procedures, and there’s nothing that can be done- small offices don’t have any leverage. Workloads are too high, in order to save money, so it’s a wonder that anybody gets any of their communications to somebody else. Major amounts of energy goes into protecting against lawsuits. High tech medicine for acute conditions gets all the resources and attention, and virtually nothing gets done for prevention because there’s no money in it, no incentives. By the time people get out of school they are so much debt that profit becomes a big focus. The entire industry is built to maximize profit and minimize risk exposure. It’s a wonder than any medicine gets done at all. The incentives of the industry are the drivers. Also, there is no easy answer for what is an inherently limitless cost, keeping people healthy- when there is a limit to what is possible with a given amount of money, but not to people’s needs. Healthcare is a public good and it doesn’t do well as a private business, but I don’t think anybody trusts a politicized system to do a good job, and medical businesses assume that they will get the short end of the stick if any changes are made. Also, the people in the business are people oriented, and not techies. It’s not that kind of a field, and doesn’t in general attract those kind of people- it’s a caring oriented business, not a tech business, and it’s hard to switch between those modes of thought- but I have to do it constantly anyway, and it’s not easy.

a few extra thoughts since I can't edit my previous post

Foster Ryan LAc 2018-01-24

I agree with your analysis. It feels to me that each node in the system is battling for its life against every other node, so cooperation is etremely suspect. Every medical office is in competition with the other offices for patients so aren’t necessarily interested in working with them, unless a reliable referral relationship could be worked out- but even that is still suspect. Practitioners are in fear of enslavement by larger medical organziations- for good reason. Every medical organization is in fear of enslavement to the insurance companies, so any cooperation is extremely suspect and frowned upon, because the payors mostly just want to ream the providers and make more profit by reducing costs. Patients can be difficult and some very litigious so providers are wary of giving the patients too much because when you give them an inch they are almost guaranteed to demand a mile. Payors are terrified of being enslaved to government demands so the relationship is very adversarial. Everybody assumes that any government involvement will be corrupted and controlled by big money so nobody really wants the government involved, becausee the government is enslaved to big money and does not have people’s interests at heart. Then the regulations become impossible to understand so we try not to pay attention to them because I have no time to read them anyway. We are all forced into trying to do what we think’s best and hope that that will work out. I only trust personal relatioships with other medical professionals, attorneys, and payor employees because this is the only way to not give screwed in countless ways. I am very reluctant to work with somebody I don’t personally know to some extent because it always turns out bad if I violate that rule. Village life principles are the only reliable ones in this field. The attorneys I work with operate this way, and everybody wants to minimze the information accessible to others because it only exposes you to risk and to losing patients, business, or payment. The only medical practitioners in my field I will openly communicate with are ones outside my market, across the country, and even then I’m wary because the information can make it back to my area and hurt my business. We all assume that an integrated system will only hurt us because it will lower the barrriers to the big players taking control and screwing the little players, and we will not be able to do anything about it, so it’s better to have roadblocks everywhere for defense.

Emotional intelligence training

Rufus 2018-01-26

Perhaps emotional intelligence training will be useful for preparing technical people for post-apocalyptic America. Among other things, it helps people pick up on social cues and the emotional states of the people around them.
More importantly, however, it appears to be capable of getting people to a Kegan’s stage 4 level of self-regulation without them needing social support.Perhaps it can help prevent some of what you’re predicting.
(The version of emotional intelligence training I am familiar with is the one in the book Emotional Intelligence 2.0)


zaphod4prez 2018-02-11

David, how do we pay you?? I cant seem to find a patreon or donation link on any of your sites, but I want to support your work (because I love it!) Do you have a way for your readers to support your blogs?


David Chapman 2018-02-12

zaphod4prez, thank you so much! I really appreciate your generosity.

I don’t have a Patreon (or anything similar) set up. It’s a good idea, and I’ve added it to my to-do list!

Mentioning the work to other people who might be interested is probably the most valuable way to help, for now.

what happened to deitic representations

Robert Demb 2018-06-06

Hello, I’m doing some research and I’m trying to connect the dots from Dreyfus’s critique(what machines still can’t do), “representations,” connectionists (all the way up through the current dnn, cnn - ilk stuff), to the present, and would like to get your perspective on what, if anything remains of your work (and agre’s ) in the “continuum” (in Dreyfus’s view) of AI. I did buy your book some 25 years ago, and managed around that time to obtain Agre’s “Dynamic Structure of Everyday Life,” but have not been able to pick up any current threads on where your stuff has gone. I know this is over simplified, but I am hoping you can provide a brief perspective of how, if at all, your stuff has evolved and/or is being used.

If this “comment” is out of context and/or inappropriate for this “venue” I apologize, but it was the only way I could find to communicate with you directly without getting wrapped around the axle of social media.

Thank you for your time. Robert

Whatever happened to...

David Chapman 2018-06-06

Hi Robert, sure, glad to answer questions.

There’s partial answers here and here.

Short version, neither Phil nor I wanted to pursue the matter. Although a lot of technical progress still seemed possible, we couldn’t see how to build a general AI, which is what we’d wanted to do. And we both also kind of lost interest in the project of building a general AI anyway, and went off to do other things. (Phil into communication theory and me in to pharmaceutical drug discovery.)

Some other people continued work along the lines we’d set out, for a few years. But right around then there began an AI Winter (i.e. funding dried up), so there weren’t the resources to pursue what seemed like a somewhat non-mainstream approach. And also, neither Phil nor I was there to spearhead the effort and promote the ideas. So after a few years, our work mostly got forgotten.

Dreyfus did write a follow-up piece about our work in 2007.

When you talk about a “continuum,” is that the one between “really stupid like a bug” and “really smart like Einstein or something”? (Which Dreyfus mentions in that paper.) Or some other one?

This is the paradigm case of

Alex 2018-06-18

Coasian hell

David Chapman 2018-06-18

Thank you, that’s a really nice explanation! And it does seem like the right analysis.

The paradigm cases of “mysterious cost disease” in the US also include housing, education, and government. It tends to be implicitly assumed that the same explanations should apply to them and to health care, but they don’t seem to be examples of “Coasian hell,” so probably different stories are needed in each case.

(Transportation infrastructure is another, less catastrophic US cost disease case. That one does seem likely due to the same general causes as the UK rail system.)

US Healthcare

James Keddie 2018-09-09

Good blog, many good comments - I particularly liked the one about the Japanese system, and the one introducing Coase-ian Hell. For my sins, I´m a (reluctant) economist.

To add my own two bits. The blog concentrates on communication between institutions, which is fine. it also mentions in passing, but does not emphasise, defective communication between purely medical teams even within US institutions, e.g. hospitals. If that is not tackled it will become an increasingly serious problem, because more and more older people have multiple conditions, as: neurological, urological, cardiac, pulmonary, orthopedic … If medical teams do not communicate effectively, the consequences will be (a) worse treatment and (b) as a knock-on effect, assuming the patient survives, unnecessarily increased long-term costs.

My experience, as a relatively elderly person myself, with the NHS in the UK does not extend much to communication within hospitals. But its various ´out-patient´services and personnel do seem to communicate and cooperate effectively and efficiently on diagnosis, tests, treatment, and follow-up. The manifold institutional writhings and tricks which you report from the US are not necessary because the system is unitary and has effectively only paymaster, HM Govt-

Dis function between systems within healthcare

Alison Cartwright 2018-09-09

There is a truly simple solution. Alas it is political. Publicly funded universal healthcare. Cheers from north of the 49th.

Living people have experienced system breakdown

Amy 2019-05-17

I have not lived through this myself, but the description reminds me of light reading about Soviet tolkachi (“pushers”) and Cuban sociolismo (buddy-ism, but only one letter off from “socialism”). It seems a universal (or at least pan-Europeanoid) response to system breakdown.

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